The challenges facing the Vietnamese economy in the 2012-2015 period were discussed at an economic forum on Vietnam held in Hanoi on January 10.
Experts at the forum said that in 2012, the Vietnamese economy will continue to confront many threats due to fluctuations in the world economy such as high inflation, declining growth, trade deficits and low liquidity of the banking system.
They believe that adjustments to macro-economic policies will have a strong impact on economic growth targets and efforts to curb inflation in this year.
They presented two scenarios for the Vietnamese economy in the new year. In the better one, the Vietnamese economy could grow at an annual rate of 6-6.3 percent; for the other one, the economy will only grow 5.6-5.9 percent per year.
Inflation could decrease to 8-10 percent in 2012 and 6-7 percent in 2013.
However, obstacles to reducing interest rates remain as many banks lack liquidity and bad debts continue, often taking months to resolve.
Dr Tran Dinh Thien, head of the Vietnam Economics Institute, said many businesses will collapse because they failed to access capital early.
Some experts hold that Vietnam’s major task for the first quarter of 2012 is to stabilise the liquidity of the banking system through re-providing capital (from banks), and transferring redundant capital from banks to tSTC that are running short.
Many economists at the forum believe that the major targets for the 2012-2015 period are to stabilise the macro-economy and shift the national economic structure.