Forecasts on to-be-listed shares of two banking giants

16-Jun-2009 Intellasia | 15/Jun/2009 Lao Dong | 7:41 PM Print This Post

Behind the story of hot growth of both listed and OTC shares is another attractive and curious story, that is the story of the soon to be listed shares of Vietcombank and Vietinbank.

An interesting movement last week was the race between ACB and STB. The movements of the two shares was for some reason interdependent of market moves. STB hit the ceiling price for seven consecutive trading sessions with large matching volume. STB rose by up to 39 percent within nearly two weeks, with the average matching volume of 8.15 million shares a session and total accumulative volume of 65.2 million shares.

ACB did not hit the ceiling price as continuously as STB did perhaps because the bank’s share volume in circulation is too large. However, ACB price still went up day by day due to the calculation of average price of HASTC. ACB also increased by some 27.6 percent within the two recent weeks, with the average matching volume of 7.2 million shares a session and total accumulative volume of 57.6 million shares.

What is notable is that VN Index at the same time inched up by only 14.6 percent and HaSTC-Index advanced by 18.1 percent.

Last week, STB and ACB witnessed historical huge matching volume and their prices closed at ceiling prices.

With the current surge of prices, it is likely that by the end of June when Vietcombank and Vietinbank go public, prices of STB and ACB are expected to remain high.

According to Pham Huy Hung, chair of VietinBank’s executive board, the bank planned to go on the bourse on 16 July. The planned price would be some 50,000 dong a share. As for Vietcombank, the share price is forecasted at between 50,000 dong and 70,000 dong. According to Vietcombank, its listing is slated for June 30 and the reference price will be announced on June 25.

Normally, identifying prices is based on different factors including book-entry values, value appraisal of consultants, OTC prices and reference prices of other shares of the same industry. Namely, SHB is a typical symptom when its price jumped from below-par-value level on OTC to 30,000 dong upon listing. Currently, SHB reaches 39,000 dong a share, STB 40,200 dong and ACB 56,800 dong.

Meanwhile, prices of some financial shares reach 49,200 dong a share for PVF, 77,000 dong a share for SSI, 74,500 dong a share for HCM. Although Vietcombank shares been deposited, investors still can trade Vietcombank on a negotiation basis through securities companies. According to some securities companies, last week, the trading volume of Vietcombank shares was modest at price of some 53,000 dong a share. So, Vietcombank’s listing price will be higher than 50,000 dong a share. On the other hand, the trading band for the first session at HCM City Stock Exchange is up to 20 percent, hence, the closing prices of the two giants may be far higher than the reference prices.

According to Saigon Securities Inc (SSI), the basic analysis showed that P/E of STB in 2009 is some 13 and P/E of ACB is 17. Vietcombank Securities Co (VCBS) said that bank shares now have more attractive P/E than the average P/E of 50 companies having the highest capitalisation. At present, P/E of STB is 13 and ACB 17. VCBS added that the most proper P/E of the banking sector is some 30 to 40 times, equivalent to STB and ACB prices of some 90,000 dong and 120,000 dong respectively. So, how much Vietcombank and VietinBank’s share prices should be expected?


Category: Stocks

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