Inching up trend of the economy is continuing to be recognised. The figures from General Statistical Office (GSO) showed that the index of industrial production (IIP) in August 2012 rose 4.1 percent from July and surged 4.4 percent over the same period last year.
Totally, in Jan-Aug, IIP posted a rise of 4.7 percent on year, 0.1 percent lower than the rise of 4.8 percent in the first seven months of this year.
According to specialists, these figures showed industrial production, which has big contribution to general economic growth, is on the rebound but it is still a relatively weak.
The most difficult phase of the economy has been over, the gradual recovery of the economy has been mentioned by local and foreign economic experts in recent time. To offer more proof, perhaps, in the first seven months of this year, according to figures from the general Department of Taxation, nearly 1,000 businesses resuming operations mainly non-state enterprises can be considered a fairly typical example.
With this recovery, although still remaining weak, it is forecast that Vietnam’s GDP growth in the third quarter of this year would reach 5.53%.
In a forecast released not long ago, both HSBC and ANZ have made the same prediction that Vietnam’s GDP growth will be faster in the second half of this year when the moves of loosening monetary and fiscal policies are made.
According to ANZ, the government’s move to give a subsidy package of approximately 29 trillion dong, while enhancing the capital disbursement for development investment, will help GDP growth in Q3 reach above 5%, and in Q4, even up to over 6%. “As a result, GDP growth for the whole year will be around 5.5%,” ANZ’s experts predicted.
If real GDP growth reaches 5.53 percent in Q3, the GDP growth in the first nine months of this year would be about 4.8%. This growth is quite low compared with the growth of 5.76 percent in the first nine months in 2011; 6.54 percent for the first nine months in 2010 and 6.52 percent in the first three quarters of 2008. However, it is still higher than the growth of 4.62 percent in Jan-Sep of 2009 – the year of economic recession and also the year of the economy changes quite similar to 2012. In 2009, GDP growth in Q1 and Q2 was 3.1 percent and 4.5 percent respectively. This year, in Q1 and Q2, GDP growth was 4 percent and 4.66%. Looking at the quarterly GDP growth rate, it is clear to see the “inching up” of the economy, which is falling into the stagnation situation since the beginning of this year so far.
As forecasted by the Ministry of Planning and Investment, in Q4, GDP growth could reach 6 percent and it would be about 5.3 – 5.6 percent for the whole year. In a meeting with leaders of Hanoi People’s Committee about two weeks ago, the minister of Planning and Investment, Bui Quang Vinh, also emphasized this. According to the minister, this year’s GDP growth will not be able to achieve the goal (6 – 6.5%).
Meanwhile, according to the prediction of a group of economic experts, economic growth from now till the end of this year depends largely on investment, including public investment, FDI capital and credit growth. While public investment and FDI capital are relatively stable and easy to predict, credit growth could not be determined reliably.
The fact showed that despite certain changes, interest rates have fallen, both monetary and fiscal policies have been loosened, production and business activities of enterprise systems still face many difficulties. In such context, credit growth is still quite sluggish and it can only reach about six percent for the whole year. Meanwhile, social investments, despite being faster, even the government has approved to advances 30 trillion dong of the capital plan in 2012, still do not really have the positive changes and clarity. When the “nutrient” to feed the economy grows slowly, the economy does not expect a strong recovery.