Pham Hong Hai, deputy CEO in charge of monetary and treasury sector of HSBC Vietnam, expected that dollar prices will be around VND21,300-VND21,400 by the end of this year on low local demand.
The forecast was released today at the CEO Summit 2012 held on August 2 despite the earlier forecast the price of VND21,500 by the bank’s analyst.
Hai also expected the dollar prices will be at VND21,500 in end-2013, saying that “in 2013, the exchange rate can be adjusted by 2-3 percent, still better than previous years with 9-10 percent adjustments”.
Hai also expected Vietnam’s inflation will be 5.4 percent this year, much lower than 18.56 percent in 2011 and stressed that inflation is not a big story this year.
In the latest economics update issued in August, HSBC’s analyst revised down their forecast for Vietnam’s imports and exports. It cut export growth outlook to 13.7 percent from previous 16.6 percent and import growth of 6.5 percent from 12.3 percent earlier, leading to the country’s trade deficit of $3.5 billion instead of $6.4 billion seen earlier.
HSBC also expected Vietnam economy to expand 5.1 percent in 2012, hinting that H2/2012 will grow much faster than H1/2012 result of 4.38 percent.
The lender forecast that in 2013, Vietnam will see 5.8 percent GDP growth, inflation at 8,7 percent and dollar prices at VND21,500.