HSBC in its August 2011 report on money market prospects has said that the US dollar will be depreciated after the US’s debt rating is lowered by S&P.
Among the currencies offered for comparison in South Asia by HSBC, only the dong is the sole currency being devalued against the US dollar. According to HSBC, from Q3, the forex rate will be up 21,500 dong and this level will be maintained until the end of Q2 2012.
Previously, HSBC had ppredicted that the forex rate may be up to 21,800 dong/US dollar by the end of this year. In June, ANZ and Standard Chartered also forecast, the forex rate will be stable at 20,600 dong/US dollar in 2011 to the end of this year.
In North Asia, HSBC predicted the yuan of China will be up to 6.4 CNY/US dollar in this Q3 this year and at 6.25 CNY/US dollar in the Q2/2012.
With Japanese yen (JPY), HSBC forecasts the JPY price will be up 76 JPY/US dollar in Q3 of this year and continues to increase to 72 JPY/US dollar from Q4 2011 and Q2/2012.
Pound and euro were also predicted to appreciate against the US dollar from quarter 4/2011.
Despite being depreciated against many other currencies, but according to HSBC, the greenback will not soon lose the reserve currency role. The holding of US dollar is still common and necessary for the entire world financial system.
As estimated by HSBC, the reserves of the world’s central banks reached some $10 trillion, of which the reserves in US dollar is estimated at least 62 percent.