Tim Condon, head of Asian research for ING Groep NV, comments in a report on the chances of Taiwan’s central bank cutting the discount rate on 10-day loans as government exports data due today will probably show a slowdown. The Central Bank of China (Taiwan) will meet on December 30. Policy makers refrained from raising interest rates in the September 30 meeting after five straight quarters of increases.
“We consider the CBC the BOJ of Asia ex-Japan: ultra hawkish and unlikely to cut barring a much more serious export downturn.
”November export data is due. Consensus is 8.6 percent year-on-year growth. The fourth quarter is seasonally the second-strongest growth quarter but this year’s best months are probably behind us. Exports have consolidated since March 2011 with the softness concentrated in electronics, 47 percent of 2010 exports.”