| |
| Wrong figures from economic forecasts at high risk |
|
18-APR-2008 Intellasia | Tuoi Tre |
|
18 Apr, 2008 - 7:00:00 AM |
|
The Ministry of Planning and Investment two months ago announced that total disbursed foreign direct investment capital (FDI) in 2007 reached US$4.6 billion that was inserted into the payment scale of the State Bank of Vietnam to balance macro policies.
However, the total figure was then released again at over US$8 billion, meaning that the difference was US$4 billion, which caused shocks for macro policy markers in fields of trade deficit and forex rate policies.
With the previous figure of US$4.6 billion FDI being disbursed in the context that the trade deficit of 2007 ballooned to US$14 billion is ominous. But, if the disbursed FDI amount is over US$8 billion, the economic situation is not much tense. The figure US$14 billion in trade deficit will be compensated by fairly stable foreign capital flow including US$6 billion in inward remittance and US$8 billion in FDI. The remaining foreign indirect investment capital (FII) could be considered to be capital surplus for SBV's payment balance.
According to a SBV official, the insert of US$4.6 billion FDI figure into the plan of drawing up macro economic policies has raised the worry that trade deficit could be a time bomb. Foreign currency earned from exports could not cover imports. The money amount including inward remittance and FDI used to compensate for trade deficit remained not enough and the economy must expect in FII that is called short-term capital. If investors massively withdraw capital, there appears a heavy pressure on forex rate and the whole financial system. Instead of this, there is needed to control imports and monitor forex rate. Factually, a series of recent policies of the government to surmount trade deficit are very strict, especially measures to control forex rate.
If the recently announced figure of US$8 billion FDI is totally exact, trade deficit will not be a too alarming issue no longer and within this year, Vietnam can reduce trade deficit in line with a roadmap. In addition, the forex rate policy could be loosened to encourage exports, minimise difficulties for enterprises. Therefore, inexact statistics brought in excessively strict measures, added the official.
Two figures on disbursed FDI amount released by the planning and investment ministry have a too large gap, which has affected strongly to economic analysis and predication ability.
Many foreign analysts said that Vietnam's economic information system remains weak. In statistical and economic analysis reports of Asean, the part on Vietnam's economic results usually is blank due to the shortage of updated information. This proves that Vietnamese authorities have not paid much attention to statistical and forecast assignment yet. In fact, weak forecasts will lead to the tardiness in building up and issuing policies even wrong policies.
|
|
|
|
