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| 2009 CPI expected to increase to 7.51 pct |
| 30/Jun/2009 Intellasia | Thoi Bao Kinh Te Vietnam Page 2 |
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| 30 Jun, 2009 - 1:50:18 PM |
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The National Centre for Socio-economic Information and Forecast (NCSEIF), under Ministry of Planning and Investment has predicted that there would be positive changes in Vietnam's economy in H2 of 2009.
The last six months of this year would be the good time for the government's monetary loosening strategies and economic stimulating packages to take effects. As a result, the capital market would be heated and the price might hike again within this period. However, the consumer price index (CPI) for the whole year would be limited at 7.51 percent.
Another prediction given by the Centre was that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in industrial sector in 2009 would stay at 4.6-5.2 percent; for agriculture of 3.4-3.7 percent and for services at 4.9-5.8 percent.
Le Ky An, NCEIF's director said Vietnam's export turnover might be improved when the export price was expected to increase in Q3 and Q4, especially for those key consumer goods. In addition, there would be more export demands thanks to the effects brought by trade promotion and export market expanding activities to China and Africa.
Listed below are three difficulties that Vietnam may have to face in the fight against inflation. Firstly, the fact that crude oil price kept on rising in the world market recently to $70 per barrel caused much pressure of increasing prices in the domestic market. Secondly, a large sum of money has been disbursed for the economic stimulating packages and for the government's social insurance policies while the domestic production hasn't recovered fully. This may lead to money-goods unbalance, causing the prices to fly high. Lastly, the price for housing goods and construction materials will jump after the government pushes up the implementation of its investment stimulating programmes and the domestic consumer demands will increase at the end of the year.
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