Dr Nguyen Duc Thanh, director of Policy and Economic Research Centre of Hanoi National University has released his economic analysis and forecast saying that the 2009 inflation could range between 6.3 and 9.3 percent.
During first days of Q3, some functional agencies quickly announced important economic statistics, notably the report of the General Statistical Office (GSO) about the economic situation and another of finance ministry on state budget.
Accordingly, in H1, Vietnam's GDP grew by 3.9 percent year-on-year, in which the industrial production output only increased by 4.8 percent and the value of goods transportation was nearly unchanged (up only 0.3 percent in output), showing that the economy still is facing many difficulties. "From this, I am able to confirm that Vietnamese economy has not entered the real recovery period yet, citing the analysis", said Dr Nguyen Duc Thanh.
During the first half of 2009, total investments jumped to 322.6 trillion dong partially thanks to the government's interest rate subsidisation policy. However, reviewing the investment structure, new investments mainly came from state companies, accounting for 43.9 percent (or 141.6 trillion dong), and 110 trillion dong was made by domestic private firms.
Meanwhile, according to SBV, till the middle of June, private companies received 224.5 trillion dong of subsidised loans for short term purposes like paying salary to staff or purchasing materials and others while state firms only enjoyed 52.4 trillion dong.
H1 budgetary overspending was 33.45 trillion dong because of high rise of spending and a reduction in receivables, the finance ministry reported. The budgetary deficit of the whole year is predicted to be 100 trillion dong, which could be controlled at less than 8 percent of GDP in 2009.
The cash supply in H1 surged by 16-17 percent y-o-y, showing the effectiveness of the government's monetary policies, Dr Thanh cited GSO's report. However, we [Vietnam's monetary market regulators] need to be cautious in monitoring cash supply and interest rate subsidisation policies. Cash oversupply this year will cause inflation for the start of 2010.
In the doctor's opinion, 2009 inflation could be curbed at one digit while the economic growth will be at the optimistic level of 4.7 percent, a bit lower than the plan.
|
