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Philippine central bank may further unwind stimulus |
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10-MAR-2010 Intellasia | Bloomberg |
10 Mar, 2010 - 7:00:00 AM |
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The Philippines will consider unwinding some of its stimulus measures even as it may keep interest rates unchanged to support the economic recovery, central bank deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo said.
"There are reasons to review the crisis intervention measures that we put in place during the height of the global financial crisis," Guinigundo, who meets other policy makers this week to decide on borrowing costs, said in an interview in Manila yesterday. "The policy rates can be maintained at this point as our inflation outlook remains positive and benign."
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas earlier this year raised the rediscounting rate, one of the interest rates it charges lenders for borrowing money from the central bank, joining policy makers from China to India in withdrawing monetary stimulus. It kept benchmark borrowing costs unchanged at a record-low 4 percent in January to strengthen the nation's economic recovery.
"The central bank will tighten but policy makers will only increase the interest rate in June," Luz Lorenzo, an economist at ATR-Kim Eng Securities Inc. in Manila, said before the interview. "They may do some other adjustments such as lessening the budget available for the rediscounting window."
Policy makers will review all measures put in place to counter the global financial crisis now that financial markets have stabilised, including reducing the budget for the rediscounting facility, Guinigundo said. The rediscounting window is a Bangko Sentral facility that allows lenders to borrow from the central bank using loans as collateral.
Capital Flows
Low interest rates in the US and Europe and faster growth in Asia are spurring capital flows into the region, prompting China to start draining excess cash from the economy to prevent asset bubbles. Australia and Vietnam have raised borrowing costs as inflation accelerates, and Malaysia last week increased its overnight policy rate, saying it wants to avoid "financial imbalances".
The Philippine central bank "will need to see more signs that growth is holding before they increase the policy rate," said Lorenzo. "Inflation is still benign. The strong peso is dampening imported inflation and growth is still weak."
The central bank may lower its 2010 inflation forecast to 4 percent from 4.7 percent on lower oil prices, Guinigundo said last week. Consumer-price gains in the Philippines eased for a second month in February to 4.2 percent.
Inflation Forecast
Bangko Sentral forecasts inflation may slow to a range of 3.4 percent to 3.5 percent in 2011, from an estimated 4 percent this year, Guinigundo said.
Philippine economic growth accelerated to a one-year high of 1.8 percent last quarter from a decade-low 0.4 percent in the previous three months. The government forecasts the economy will expand 2.6 percent to 3.6 percent in 2010.
"The outlook is still fragile, domestic capital formation is still weak, private consumption was lower compared to the previous years," Guinigundo said. "There is scope to continuing both monetary and fiscal accommodation."
The Philippine peso rose 0.5 percent yesterday and was little changed at 45.87 a dollar at 9:35 a.m. today. The currency has gained 5.9 percent in the past year as Asia's economic rebound attracts funds to the region's assets. Benchmark four-year bonds advanced, pushing the yield to the lowest in two months.
Jollibee Foods
Asia is leading a recovery from the worst global recession since World War II, lifting sales at the region's exporters, property and food companies. Jollibee Foods Corp., the fast-food chain that outsells McDonald's Corp. in the Philippines, is looking forward "to a more robust growth in 2010," the company said last month.
"It's difficult to say or to commit as to the sequencing of our unwinding or disengagement strategy," Guinigundo said when asked if the central bank would ask lenders to set aside more money as reserves. "We don't want to cause any sharp increase in financial intermediation costs which will drive an equally significant upward adjustment in market interest rates."
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-08/philippine-central-bank-may-further-unwind-stimulus-update1-.html
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