During the first two months this year, especially from the beginning of March, stock market has been considered the strongest investment channel amongst investment channels.
Gold is a traditional investment channel with highest liquidity and suitable to every investors. But, it depends on the world gold price and the dong/US dollar forex rate. Currently, the domestic gold price is higher than the world price.
Entering the year 2010, the domestic gold price dropped 2.94 percent in January and 2.03 percent in February, bringing the total fall to 4.91 percent in Jan-February. Gold price is predicted to increase slightly in March. The world gold price is now at $1,125 per ounce.
As for US dollar investment channel, if including both the increasing US dollar price and US dollar saving rate, in Jan-Mar, it equalled to the dong saving rate.
Meanwhile, real estate market did not increase significantly due to low transactions.
Thus, stock market is regarded as the strongest investment channel currently. The index of Hochiminh Stock Exchange (STC) gained 6.24 percent on March 10 against December 31, 2009. This increase speed is much higher than the saving rate, consumer price index (CPI), gold price, US dollar price or real estate during the same period. Notably, many specialists forecasted that stock market is starting the upturn cycle.
Moreover, the trading value increased strongly (on both floor STC and Hanoi Stock Exchange-HNX) from March 1 to 10, reaching over 3.01 trillion dong each session, much higher than the figure of past several months. The money flow pouring into the stock market is mainly from available capital of investors and money source from the finance lever (increasing sharply to the highest level since last October). The credit growth surged again (it rose 1.14 percent in February, marking the highest level during past three months).
The available capital source in the banking system soared (before Tet holiday, banking system was in surplus of 13 trillion dong and it was some 30 trillion dong after Tet holiday).
Both deposit and lending rate is showing downturn signs, bringing benefit for the stock market in two factors namely the money inflow to the stock market and the profit ratio between securities investment channel and saving channel.
More important factor is psychological stability, even signs of elation. The transactions of foreign investors also showed upturn tendency. The macro economy is still on the recovery impetus.
While the current saving rate is at 0.875 percent per month, lower than the CPI growth of 1.12 percent per month in Jan-February
Hence, stock market is now the most attractive investment channel.
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