Bao Viet Securities company in its recent report forecasted that Vietnam’s CPI is likely to rise less than 0.3 percent a month in the third quarter before accelerating in the fourth quarter.
The company also lowered 2012 inflation to 5.5-6.5 percent this year as “June CPI suddenly turned around”.
The company viewed slowing down inflation as an opportunity for the central bank to hold easing policy to support growth and the focus would be lower interest rate.
Vietnam’s June CPI fell 0.26 percent on month, up 2.52 percent from December 2011 and up 6.9 percent on year.
BVSC said negative on-month June CPI can be seen as early alarming signal for Vietnam to take action proactively, however, the figure is not worrying as we can only call it deflation when CPI fell continuously for at least 2 quarters.