The National Financial Supervisory Commission (NFSC) has recently submitted to the government of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (GOV) report on Vietnam economy situation and 2012 forecast.
According to NFSC’s report, inflation rate in July was down 0.29 percent compared with that in June and July was the second continuous month inflation rate was negative.
However, calculated by basic inflation (excluding food and petroleum factors), inflation rate in July still increased by 0.6 percent compared with June and 8 percent year-on-year. Thus, monetary policy was not the main reason for a decrease in goods and service price in recent months.
NFSC said that a drop in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in recent 2 months was an attractive sign, but with the trend of increasing goods price in international market as well as exporting inflation pressure from China in Q4, it was probably that CPI would rise again in future and 2012 inflation rate would be about 5%.
Committee while expressing concern said:”if we loosen policy, there will be a risk of inflation exploding in the next few years”