Vietnam is possible to run a Gross Domestic Products (GDP) growth of 4.7 percent at least in 2012. In a better outlook, the country’s GDP growth may reach 6.5 percent at most.
The Centre Institute for Economic Development (CIEM) discussed at the “Vietnam economic forum: 2012-2015 Economic forecast, topic of opportunity and challenge for the macro economy picture in the near future” which was held by the Ministry of Planning and Investment) on January 10th, 2012 in Hanoi, quoting some international organisations’ forecasts on Vietnam GDP this year.
The international forecasts for Vietnam were given in the context that the world economy is still in confusion with the “financial bubble “management.
Meanwhile, local experts are looking for the milestone of 5.5 percent GDP growth, which is lower than the government target approved by the Congress at 6-6.5 percent.
According to the CIEM’s experts, the Southeast Asian country may curb the inflation at one digit (only a half of the inflation rate in 2011 at 18.58 percent) in exchange for a fall in GDP growth, explaining that the ability for “price shocks” which affect the supply of goods in 2012 is low.
Earlier, on January 9th, 2012, the National Financial Supervisory Commission announced its report on Vietnam’s three economic scenarios in 2012. In the bad scenario, the country will get 5.2-5.5 percent GDP growth which is higher than the average GDP growth of the developing countries (lower than 4 percent).
In the good scenario, Vietnam’s GDP growth will touch 6-6.3 percent, the rate is forecast at 5.6-5.9 percent for the neutral scenario.
We vote for the bad scenario. Vietnam’s GDP growth would be around 5.5 percent, the deputy director of VICEM, Vo Tri Thanh commented.