Vietnam’s economic indicators – July 26
Vietnam’s economic indicators
* Updated CURRENCY/INTEREST RATES
*July 26 July 26, 2010 Dec 31, 2010
Dollar/dong 20,608 18,544 18,932
The VN Index 409.39 498.10 484.66
___________2011_______________ __2010 __2009
Dong May 1 Apr 1 Mar 8 Mar 3 Feb 17 Nov 5 Dec 1
Deposit ceiling 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0
Base rate 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.0
Discount rate 13.0 12.0 12.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.0
Refinance rate 14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 11.0 9.0 8.0
Dollar Jun 1 Apr 13
Deposit ceiling 2.0 3.0
GDP, pct, y/y
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
6.78 5.38 6.18 8.48 8.17 8.44 7.79 7.34 7.08 6.89 6.79
______2011______ ________2010_______ ________2009_______
Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
5.67 5.43 7.34 7.18 6.44 5.84 6.99 5.98 4.41 3.14
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, pct
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
9.19 6.88 22.97 8.3 6.6 8.4 9.5 3.0 4.0 0.8 -0.6
___________2011______________________ __________2010___________
*Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul
y/y22.2 20.8 19.8 17.5 13.9 12.3 12.2 11.8 11.1 9.7 8.9 8.2 8.2
m/m 1.2 1.1 2.2 3.3 2.2 2.1 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.1 1.3 0.2 0.1
NOTE: Annual inflation rates between 2007 and 2010 are average.
Those in 2000-2006 were annual rates in December.
RETAILS SALES, pct, y/y
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
25.0 24.5 18.6 31.0 23.3 20.9 20.5 19.4 18.8 14.5 11.3 9.7
_______2011______ _______2010________ _________2009______
*Jan-Jul H1 Q1 Jan-Sept H1 Q1 Jan-Sept H1 Q1
22.3 22.6 22.6 25.4 26.7 24.1 18.6 20.0 21.9
TRADE ACCOUNT, in billions of dollar
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001
-12.60 -12.87 -18.0 -14.1 -5.06 -4.31 -5.48 -5.12 -3.04 -1.19
_____________2011__________________ __________2010____________
*Jul*Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul
EXP 8.4 8.5 7.2 7.4 7.4 4.9 7.1 7.5 6.6 6.2 6.1 6.9 6.0
IMP 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.9 6.0 8.0 8.8 7.9 7.3 7.0 7.3 7.0
BAL-0.2-0.1 -1.5-1.5 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -1.3-1.3-1.1 -0.9-0.4-1.0
(Figures for the latest month are rounded-up estimates)
INDUSTRIAL GROWTH, pct, y/y
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001
Target 14.8 14.0 7.6 14.6 17.1 17.0 17.1 16.6 16.8 14.8 14.6
_____2011_____
IIP July June
9.6 12.7
IIP: Index of industrial production, used from June 2011.
SOURCES: the government, General Statistics Office, c.bank
FORECASTS/TARGETS
GDP, pct 2011 2010 2009 2008
-- Government/GSO 6.0 6.78 5.38 6.18
-- ADB 6.1 6.8 5.3 6.3
-- IMF 6.8 6.5 5.3 6.3
-- World Bank 6.0 6.8 5.3 6.2
(World Bank forecast for 2011 is 'slightly under 6 percent;
GDP rose 7 percent/year in 2006-2010, vs. the average 7.51
percent in 2001-2005. The ruling Communist Party plans growth
of 7-7.5 percent/year for 2011-2015)
CPI, pct 2011 2010 2009 2008
-- Government/GSO *15-17 9.19 6.88 23.0
-- ADB 13.3 9.2 6.9 23.0
-- IMF 8.3 10.4 6.7 23.1
-- World Bank 15.0 11.8 6.5 19.9
(Data from GSO, ADB and IMF are the average rates)
MONEY AND CREDIT 2011 2010 2009 2008
MONEY SUPPLY (M2) pct 15-16 23.0 28.67 20.0
- Change vs Dec '10 *Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan
2.45 1.57 0.98 2.07 2.75 -0.33
CREDIT, pct
-- Central bank/Govt 20.0 27.65 37.73 23.58
-- IMF 30.9 25.0 39.6 25.4
- Change vs Dec '10 Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan
pct 7.13 6.92 5.01 4.81 3.4 0.43
Feb 2011 Dec 2010 Dec 2009
- Value (trln dong) 2,304.8 2,229.0 1,746.2
DEPOSIT, pct
-- Central bank 27.2 26.98
- Change vs Dec '10 *Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan
2.88 1.4 0.46 1.56 1.9 -2.46
NOTE: Feb data: as of Feb. 22
NPLs, pct 2011 2010 2009 2008
-- Govt/c.bank *2.37 2.17 2.03 2.17
(For 2011: central bank data as of June)
EXPORT GROWTH, pct 2011 2010 2009 2008
-- Government/GSO *17-18.4 25.5 -8.9 29.1
-- ADB 26.4 -8.9 29.1
-- IMF 16.9 14.5 -8.9 29.1
-- World Bank 17.5 26.4 -8.9 29.1
-- MPI 10.0
(MPI: the Ministry of Planning and Investment)
IMPORT GROWTH, pct
-- Government/GSO *17.9 20.1 -14.7 28.6
-- IMF 14.3 16.2 -13.3 28.1
-- World Bank 16.4 21.2 -13.3 28.1
-- MPI 10.0
(Target for 2011 set by the Industry and Trade Ministry)
TRADE DEFICIT, in billions of dollar
-- Government *14-14.5 12.6 12.87 18.03
-- World Bank 7.5 7.1 8.31 12.78
INDUSTRIAL GROWTH, pct
-- Government 14.8 14.0 7.6 14.6
-- ADB 10.6
-- World Bank 13.0 14.0 7.6 13.9
2011 2010 2009 2008
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE/GDP, pct
-- ADB -3.8 -4.0 -7.7 -11.8
-- IMF -9.0 -8.0 -11.9
-- World Bank -5.0 -3.8 -6.6 -11.9
OVERSEAS REMITTANCES, in billions of dollars
-- Central bank/govt 8.45 8.0 6.24 7.2
FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES, in weeks of import
-- Central bank/govt 12.0 20.0 12.0
-- World Bank 1.5 1.9 3.8
FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES, in billions of dollar
-- Government/C.bank #16.0 22.0
-- ADB (-gold) 12.4 14.1 23.0
-- IMF (-gold) 13.5 13.85 16.45 23.89
-- World Bank (+gold) 12.4 14.1 23.0
NOTE: IMF data as of May 2011 and March 2010; C.bank data was
as of Dec. 3, 2009, from a government estimate on May 13 of
$20 billion.
FOREIGN DEBT, in billions of dollar
-- Govt/Fin. Min *42.8 27.9
-- World Bank 49.6 44.5 38.8 30.2
FOREIGN DEBT/GDP, pct
-- Govt/Fin. Min *44.5 42.2 39.0 29.8
-- IMF 38.3 39.5 32.5
-- World Bank 43.1 42.5 41.6 33.4
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT INFLOW, in billions of dollar
~2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
11-11.5 11.0 10.0 11.5 8.03 3.96 3.31 2.85 2.65 2.59 2.45 2.41
~ Government target
MPI ($ bln) *Jan-July 11 Jan-July 10
New projects 7.63 10.57
Increased capital 1.42 n/a
Disbursement 6.30 6.54
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005
MPI (pledges) 20 17.2 21.5 66.5 20.3 10.2 5.89
World Bank (inflow) 7.2 7.1 6.9 9.3 6.6 2.4 2.00
FOREIGN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT, in billions of dollar
Dec 10 June 10 Dec 09 June 09 Dec 08 June 08
6.2 7.0 6.6 5.7 4.6 8.0
POPULATION (mlns)
2010 2009 2008
Category: Economy
