Vietnam’s economic indicators – July 26

27-Jul-2011 Intellasia | Reuters | 4:14 PM Print This Post

Vietnam’s economic indicators

 * Updated         CURRENCY/INTEREST RATES

                      *July 26   July 26, 2010   Dec 31, 2010
 Dollar/dong   20,608       18,544           18,932
 The VN Index      409.39       498.10           484.66

                ___________2011_______________  __2010 __2009
 Dong              May 1 Apr 1 Mar 8 Mar 3 Feb 17   Nov 5  Dec 1
 Deposit ceiling    14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0
 Base rate           9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0    9.0     9.0    8.0
 Discount rate      13.0  12.0  12.0   7.0    7.0     7.0    6.0
 Refinance rate     14.0  13.0  12.0  11.0   11.0     9.0    8.0
 Dollar            Jun 1 Apr 13
 Deposit ceiling     2.0   3.0

                   GDP, pct, y/y
 2010  2009  2008  2007  2006  2005  2004  2003  2002  2001 2000
 6.78  5.38  6.18  8.48  8.17  8.44  7.79  7.34  7.08  6.89 6.79
 ______2011______   ________2010_______   ________2009_______

      Q2    Q1     Q4   Q3   Q2   Q1     Q4   Q3   Q2   Q1

    5.67  5.43   7.34 7.18 6.44 5.84   6.99 5.98 4.41 3.14


                   CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, pct
 2010   2009  2008  2007  2006  2005  2004  2003  2002 2001 2000
 9.19   6.88 22.97   8.3   6.6   8.4   9.5   3.0   4.0  0.8 -0.6
 ___________2011______________________ __________2010___________

 *Jul  Jun  May  Apr  Mar  Feb  Jan  Dec  Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul
 y/y22.2 20.8 19.8 17.5 13.9 12.3 12.2 11.8 11.1 9.7 8.9 8.2 8.2
 m/m 1.2  1.1  2.2  3.3  2.2  2.1  1.7  2.0  1.9 1.1 1.3 0.2 0.1
 NOTE: Annual inflation rates between 2007 and 2010 are average.

    Those in 2000-2006 were annual rates in December.


                   RETAILS SALES, pct, y/y
 2011   2010  2009  2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
 25.0   24.5  18.6  31.0 23.3 20.9 20.5 19.4 18.8 14.5 11.3  9.7
 _______2011______       _______2010________ _________2009______
*Jan-Jul   H1   Q1       Jan-Sept    H1   Q1 Jan-Sept    H1   Q1

 22.3 22.6 22.6           25.4  26.7 24.1     18.6  20.0 21.9


                   TRADE ACCOUNT, in billions of dollar

2010    2009   2008  2007  2006  2005  2004  2003  2002  2001
 -12.60  -12.87  -18.0 -14.1 -5.06 -4.31 -5.48 -5.12 -3.04 -1.19
 _____________2011__________________  __________2010____________

 *Jul*Jun  May Apr  Mar  Feb  Jan   Dec Nov Oct  Sep Aug Jul
 EXP 8.4 8.5  7.2 7.4  7.4  4.9  7.1   7.5 6.6 6.2  6.1 6.9 6.0
 IMP 8.6 8.6  8.7 8.9  8.9  6.0  8.0   8.8 7.9 7.3  7.0 7.3 7.0
 BAL-0.2-0.1 -1.5-1.5 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9  -1.3-1.3-1.1 -0.9-0.4-1.0
(Figures for the latest month are rounded-up estimates)


                   INDUSTRIAL GROWTH, pct, y/y

       2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001
 Target   14.8 14.0  7.6 14.6 17.1 17.0 17.1 16.6 16.8 14.8 14.6

       _____2011_____
 IIP      July      June

        9.6      12.7
 IIP: Index of industrial production, used from June 2011.
 SOURCES: the government, General Statistics Office, c.bank


                   FORECASTS/TARGETS
 GDP, pct               2011       2010       2009       2008
 -- Government/GSO       6.0       6.78       5.38       6.18
 -- ADB                  6.1        6.8        5.3        6.3
 -- IMF                  6.8        6.5        5.3        6.3
 -- World Bank           6.0        6.8        5.3        6.2
 (World Bank forecast for 2011 is 'slightly under 6 percent;
 GDP rose 7 percent/year in 2006-2010, vs. the average 7.51
 percent in 2001-2005. The ruling Communist Party plans growth
 of 7-7.5 percent/year for 2011-2015)

 CPI, pct               2011       2010       2009       2008
 -- Government/GSO    *15-17        9.19       6.88      23.0
 -- ADB                 13.3        9.2        6.9       23.0
 -- IMF                  8.3       10.4        6.7       23.1
 -- World Bank          15.0       11.8        6.5       19.9
 (Data from GSO, ADB and IMF are the average rates)

 MONEY AND CREDIT       2011       2010       2009       2008
 MONEY SUPPLY (M2) pct 15-16       23.0       28.67      20.0
 - Change vs Dec '10   *Jun  May  Apr  Mar  Feb   Jan

                    2.45 1.57 0.98 2.07 2.75 -0.33
 CREDIT, pct
 -- Central bank/Govt   20.0       27.65      37.73     23.58
 -- IMF                 30.9       25.0       39.6      25.4
 - Change vs Dec '10    Jun  May  Apr  Mar  Feb   Jan

pct                  7.13 6.92 5.01 4.81  3.4  0.43

                 Feb 2011   Dec 2010    Dec 2009
 - Value (trln dong) 2,304.8    2,229.0     1,746.2
 DEPOSIT, pct
 -- Central bank                   27.2       26.98
 - Change vs Dec '10   *Jun May  Apr  Mar  Feb   Jan

                    2.88 1.4 0.46 1.56  1.9 -2.46
 NOTE: Feb data: as of Feb. 22
 NPLs, pct              2011       2010       2009      2008
 -- Govt/c.bank         *2.37       2.17       2.03      2.17
 (For 2011: central bank data as of June)
 EXPORT GROWTH, pct     2011       2010       2009      2008
 -- Government/GSO  *17-18.4       25.5       -8.9      29.1
 -- ADB                            26.4       -8.9      29.1
 -- IMF                 16.9       14.5       -8.9      29.1
 -- World Bank          17.5       26.4       -8.9      29.1
 -- MPI                 10.0
 (MPI: the Ministry of Planning and Investment)
 IMPORT GROWTH, pct
 -- Government/GSO     *17.9       20.1      -14.7      28.6
 -- IMF                 14.3       16.2      -13.3      28.1
 -- World Bank          16.4       21.2      -13.3      28.1
 -- MPI                 10.0
 (Target for 2011 set by the Industry and Trade Ministry)
 TRADE DEFICIT, in billions of dollar
 -- Government      *14-14.5       12.6      12.87      18.03
 -- World Bank           7.5        7.1       8.31      12.78

 INDUSTRIAL GROWTH, pct
 -- Government          14.8       14.0       7.6       14.6
 -- ADB                                                 10.6
 -- World Bank          13.0       14.0       7.6       13.9


                     2011       2010      2009       2008
 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE/GDP, pct
 -- ADB                 -3.8       -4.0      -7.7      -11.8
 -- IMF                            -9.0      -8.0      -11.9
 -- World Bank          -5.0       -3.8      -6.6      -11.9

 OVERSEAS REMITTANCES, in billions of dollars
 -- Central bank/govt    8.45       8.0       6.24       7.2

 FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES, in weeks of import
 -- Central bank/govt              12.0      20.0       12.0
 -- World Bank                      1.5       1.9        3.8

 FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES, in billions of dollar
 -- Government/C.bank                       #16.0       22.0
 -- ADB        (-gold)             12.4      14.1       23.0
 -- IMF        (-gold)  13.5       13.85     16.45      23.89
 -- World Bank (+gold)             12.4      14.1       23.0
 NOTE: IMF data as of May 2011 and March 2010; C.bank data was
 as of Dec. 3, 2009, from a government estimate on May 13 of
 $20 billion.

 FOREIGN DEBT, in billions of dollar
 -- Govt/Fin. Min                 *42.8      27.9
 -- World Bank          49.6       44.5      38.8       30.2
 FOREIGN DEBT/GDP, pct
 -- Govt/Fin. Min      *44.5       42.2      39.0       29.8
 -- IMF                            38.3      39.5       32.5
 -- World Bank          43.1       42.5      41.6       33.4
  FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT INFLOW, in billions of dollar

~2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
 11-11.5 11.0 10.0 11.5 8.03 3.96 3.31 2.85 2.65 2.59 2.45 2.41
  ~ Government target
 MPI ($ bln)         *Jan-July 11  Jan-July 10
 New projects            7.63         10.57
 Increased capital       1.42         n/a
 Disbursement            6.30         6.54

                   2011   2010  2009  2008  2007  2006  2005
 MPI       (pledges)    20   17.2  21.5  66.5  20.3  10.2  5.89
 World Bank (inflow)   7.2    7.1   6.9   9.3   6.6   2.4  2.00

 FOREIGN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT, in billions of dollar
 Dec 10  June 10   Dec 09  June 09   Dec 08  June 08

 6.2      7.0      6.6      5.7      4.6      8.0

 POPULATION (mlns)
 2010  2009  2008  

 


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