Vietnam’s May 2012 consumer price index (CPI) is forecast to accelerate to +0.15 percent increase from April 2012, analysts with the local news provider NDH Money forecast.
The forecast is based on Leontief and ARIMA models.
If the forecast comes true, Vietnam’s May CPI will records the lowest on-month rise level compared with May since 2004, NDHMoney said, adding that the low growth rate indicates the low demand which is controlling factor to CPI in recent months.
Food and food stuff; housing and construction materials (including rent, electricity, water, fuel and construction materials) are considered to be two baskets what will curb the CPI rise in May while groups of traffic; culture. entertainment and tourism; garment. footwear. hat are believed to boost CPI increase this May, NDHMoney said.
Prices of rice are low due to high inventory; cheap pork meat due to remained concerns on quality help to reduce prices of food and food stuff. Similarly, low gas prices also ease price index for housing and construction materials basket.
Besides, long holiday in April 30-May 1 period help to increases prices of culture. entertainment and tourism and eating outside group. Petroleum price hike on April 20th still influences this month CPI, the forecast said, adding that the down adjustment of petroleum on May 9 and the salary increase will somehow affect this month CPI.
Earlier, Bao Viet Securities Companies (BVSC) forecast Vietnam’s consumer price index (CPI) in May to accelerate to 0.3 percent at most.