ANZ’s recently updated report on Vietnam’s economy said that although in the first six months of this year, the current accounts will face certain pressures, the trade balance for the whole year 2012 will still be in surplus.
Abundant amount of remittances will help limit the pressure on current account and FDI disbursement process will help stabilise trade balance.
Therefore, for the whole year 2012, Vietnam will still have surplus trade balance of about $6-7 billion, up strongly against the level of $3 billion in 2011. Thanks to the positive signs in the trade balance and inflation, in the last six months this year, the local currency will just face slight depreciation risk.
Particularly, by the end of 2012, the dong/US dollar foreign exchange rate is expected to increase to only 21,500 dong, equivalent to the discounted rate of the dong at 2 – 2.5%. This figure also shows the stability of the local greenback in the first half of this year and is a step forward in the ability to protect the local currency strength of the central bank.