2pct higher fuel consumption projected

22-Jan-2020 Intellasia | BangkokPost | 6:02 AM Print This Post

The Energy Business Department forecasts 2020 fuel consumption will increase 2%, driven by benzene, diesel and jet fuel, while consumption of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas for vehicles (NGV) are projected to decline this year.

Nantika Thangsuphanich, the department’s director-general, said this projection is based on GDP growth ranging 2.8-3 percent if the government’s stimulus packages are deployed throughout the year.

The department forecasts fuel consumption in the first quarter will rise 6.6 percent to 133 million litres per day because of high demand.

Ms Nantika projected Dubai crude oil will stay in a range of $65-70 per barrel in 2020 as US-Iran military tensions improve.

In 2020, diesel consumption is estimated to grow 6.3 percent to 71.6 million litres per day.

Biodiesel B10 has been classified as a fundamental diesel, replacing B7 from early 2020. B10 is projected to record 22.5 million litres per day this year, up from only 100,000 litres last year.

B7 is expected to drop to 38.9 million litres per day from 59.9 million litres.

B20 is estimated at 7.1 million litres in 2020, up from 4.5 million litres.

Ms Nantika said B10 will account for nearly 90 percent of total diesel consumption and with B7, B20 and premium diesel taking up the remaining 10%.

“Oil traders plan to expand availability of B10 at roughly 3,000 petrol stations nationwide and the government is maintaining a price gap for B10 to be two baht cheaper per litre than B7 throughout this year,” she said.

In 2020, the department projects the benzene consumption to total 33.4 million litres per day, up 3.7%. Some 32.3 million litres of those are from gasohol types E10 (octane 91 and 95), E10 and E85.

Premium benzene is expected to see consumption of 1.1 million litres per day in 2020. Jet fuel will grow 7.4 percent to 20.8 million litres, while bunker oil will rise 24 percent to 6.7 million litres.

LPG and NGV will decrease by 1.9 percent to 17.5 million kilogrammes per day and by 7.4 percent to 5 million kilogram per day, respectively.

On Monday, the department reported diesel consumption last year rose 1.8 percent to 64.4 million litres, while benzene use grew 3.7 percent to 32.2 million litres per day.

Jet fuel grew 0.8 percent to 19.3 million litres per day.

LPG and NGV contracted by 0.2 percent to 17.8 million kilogram and by 11.7 percent to 5.4 million kilogram per day, respectively.

Ms Nantika said the government supports higher use of biodiesel to reduce the emission of ultrafine dust blanketing the country.

Citing test results, B10 can reduce PM2.5 by 3.5-13.5%, while B20 can decrease levels by over 20%, she said.

 


Category: Thailand

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