POLL-Korea’s exports likely resumed decline in October due to holiday period

30-Oct-2020 Intellasia | Reuters | 6:02 AM Print This Post

* October exports 4.0 percent y/y, imports 2.1 percent y/ypoll

* September industrial output +3.0 percent s/adj m/m vs 0.7 percent in Augustpoll

* October CPI +0.7 percent y/y vs +1.0 percent in Septemberpoll

* Trade data November 1, 9 a.m. (0000 GMT)

South Korea’s exports likely fell in October on an annual basis as businesses worked two days less this month due to the Chuseok holiday, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, while resurging coronavirus cases abroad overshadowed the outlook.

Outbound shipments likely fell 4.0 percent this month from a year earlier, the poll showed, as the three-day holiday fell in early October this year. Exports surged 7.6 percent in Septemberthe first year-on-year rise in seven months.

Average daily exports, however, were expected to grow for the first time in nine months, adding to recent signs that Asia’s fourth largest economy is seeing a moderate recovery.

“South Korea’s exports will fall back to negative territory again due to fewer working days, but the average per-day exports may post growth, indicating resilient exports recovery,” said Chun Kyu-yeon, economist at Hana Financial Investment.

South Korea’s economy returned to growth in the third quarter after seeing its sharpest contraction in more than a decade, thanks to fiscal stimulus and a gradual recovery in exports.

Economists are now worried surging coronavirus cases globally and fresh lockdowns in Europe may hurt overseas demand for South Korean exports.

“Exports and industrial production will continue to face external headwinds amid the pandemic and US-China tensions, though China’s economic upturn could help to lend some support,” said Lloyd Chan, economist at Oxford Economics.

According to the poll, 15 economists expected industrial output to have grown 3.0 percent month-on-month on a seasonally adjusted basis in September after falling 0.7 percent in August.

Thirteen economists in the poll expected consumer prices to have risen a median 0.7 percent in October from a year earlier, slower than the previous month’s 1.0 percent rise.



Category: Korea

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