Trump & China: Why There Won’t Be A Trade War

29-Dec-2016 Intellasia | Forbes | 6:00 AM Print This Post

Over half a trillion dollars.

It’s the value of what China is selling to the USA annually.

This is usually put in the negative context of computing the huge trade deficit that the United States experiences with the Middle Kingdom.

There is another perspective, however – the Chinese perspective. The value of exports to the United States represents over one fifth of China’s global total.

So, the US is important to the Chinese economy. Critically important, because there are no alternative markets for most of this trade, and a lot of the Chinese economy depends on people in New Orleans and Omaha and Pasco buying goods made in China.

Trade-War? Not Likely. President-elect Trump has made it clear that he intends to make major changes in how US- China trade is operated. The consensus in much of the media and in the business world seems to conclude that Trump may be on the way to inciting a trade war with China.

However, looking at the trends in regard to future changes in the economic base of both nations, the reality will likely be the opposite. Precisely because the US will take a strong and defined stance on how trade is re-structured, the relationship between the two countries will be stronger in the future.

Over the past 25 years, the American position on trade with China has been unfocused, and clearly not engineered based on mutual strength. There truly are imbalances in the relationship – virtually all due to US non-policies.


Category: China

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